VANCOUVER — Destination Canada has published its Fall Tourism Outlook which forecasts that despite ongoing challenges, the recovery trajectory for Canada’s tourism sector is strengthening. Leisure travel is now expected to recover to 2019 levels by 2024, which is one year earlier than previously forecasted in spring 2022.
Domestic tourism will continue to lead the sector’s recovery, with market spending expected to reach 92 per cent of 2019 levels by the end of 2022 and fully recover in 2023. Additionally, the recovery of the U.S. market, is poised to accelerate in 2023, with spending reaching 91 per cent of 2019 levels as lifted border restrictions and a strong U.S. dollar encourage recovery. In 2024, spending by U.S. travellers in Canada is expected to reach 112 per cent of 2019 levels while visits from the U.S. are projected to reach 82 per cent of 2019 levels in 2023 and fully recover in 2024.
Furthermore, international overnight arrivals reached 61 per cent of 2019 levels over the summer months of 2022. Tourist expenditures and international arrivals are set to return to a long-term growth trend by 2026.
This latest forecast also includes an extended model looking at the decade ahead as far as 2030. If Canada’s tourism sector continues on the current forecasted trajectory, it has the potential to bring in more than $142 billion in 2030, marking 35-per-cent growth in just over a decade.
“This accelerated forecast is the recovery signal we have all been working to achieve. Re-starting our industry has been hard on everyone and we still have a long way to go. Over the summer months of 2022, overnight international arrivals reached only 61 per cent of 2019 levels. But the future looks very promising, if we are able to fully capitalize on it,” says Marsha Walden, president and CEO, Destination Canada. “Globally, pent-up demand for travel remains very strong, but we know travellers have many, many choices for places to go. We must ensure Canada becomes a more competitive destination, while also re-thinking our approach to tourism to maximize the socio-cultural, economic and environmental benefits the industry can bring to all of Canada.”
“Every single person that works in the tourism industry is helping accelerate the sector’s recovery in a true Team Canada effort,” says The Honourable Randy Boissonnault, Minister of Tourism and Associate Minister of Finance. “The opportunity ahead for this sector, the businesses and people that work in it is immeasurable. Our Federal Tourism Growth Strategy will help set the course for the future of tourism in Canada, creating a clear path forward to drive growth, investment and stability in this valuable sector.”
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